Is the new friendship with Russia beneficial to Turkey? Or is it just another policy error by Erdogan that will haunt Turkey for years to come?
Turkey and Russia’s roller coaster ride in the last decade has seen bilateral relations go in opposite directions many times mainly due to the Syrian conflict. Even with the nail biting incidents and issues that tested bilateral relations over the years; overall benefits for Russia have outweighed the costs. The following are the calculated major benefits for Russia:
- Trade surplus with Turkey is more than 4X mainly due to energy and minerals
- S400 missile system sold with promises of selling new Russian advanced jets
- Turkey’s slow exit out of NATO leaving it vulnerable
- New oil pipeline
- Inexpensive tourism for citizens to keep them content (no visa)
- Using the Syrian conflict to weaken Turkey, gaining a hegemony
- Incorporating Turkey in its new financial system (Pending)
On the other hand, the costs have been significantly lower for Russia:
- Russian fighter jet shot down by Turkish F16
- Incident tarnished Russia’s military image
- Turkey’s support of Jihadist groups in Syria fighting against their ally
- Other Syrian issues plus the Idlib, which Russia views as a Jihadist hub
Clearly, this arrangement with Turkey is advantageous for Russia. It is earning money and slowly getting rid of an adversary, NATO, in the area.
When we look at the benefits for Turkey, they are subordinate in almost every field.
Benefits:
- Exports, less than $4 billion subject to endless red tape
- Alternative to buy advanced weapons with strings attached
- Reliable energy supply (not cheap)
- Tourism (Southern Turkey) very positive for Antalya
- The President’s pride is elevated by being able to stand up to the West (zero sum gain)
- New financial system connect to Russian CB (Pending approval)
Costs (now and future):
- Trade deficits
- Syria
- Refugees plus Jihadists entering Turkey
- Losing investment from the West
- Weakened power in the region
- Russian dependency
- Armenian-Azerbaijani flare ups
For Turkey, it is not in its best interest to continue down this path unless there is some other ulterior motive like self interest and/or playing two superpowers to leverage the best result.
To sum up, Erdogan’s slow push away from NATO will weaken Turkey and strengthen Putin’s hand, which will hamper Turkey’s Middle East objectives and isolate it from the West and possibly losing investment. Turkey-Russia relationship will continue to be shaky with Putin coming out on top most of the times.
Forecast: Putin’s hegemony over Turkey will continue as long as the Syrian Issue lingers on, and Turkey’s current president continues to rule absolutely. The NATO alliance may be further weakened due to its rule number 1 being broken, which applies almost specifically to Turkey.
