Each month, a gold prediction in grams is estimated based on market fundamentals and trends.
September, a gram of gold priced in Turkish lira averaged around 277tl for the month of September. The main reasons: reduced perceived risk and global economic data coupled with reduced inflation in Turkey.
October, a gram of gold averaged about 279TL for the month. The month saw highs and lows. They reached a high 285TL during the invasion of Syria and lows of 268TL when the Turkish Lira strengthened.
November and December, prices fluctuated due to market changes. The average price during this time was 275TL. In November, the price was lower at around 271; however, in December it jumped to around 290TL. This was due to declining real rates and loss of confidence in the local currency, TRY. Also, the CB’s reserves kept declining.
January, prices continued to rise as market fundamentals deteriorated. The price for a gram on average was 295TL. The CB cut rates again and was borrowing money through swaps to pad its reserves. Saving’s rates dropped below the inflation rate.
February, Turkish gold monthly analysis started out at around 300TL per gram. However, with more cuts to rates, inflation data, and weak CB reserves it spiked to around 320TL per gram. Other geo-political concerns added to the rise.
March, the price jumped around between 315-320TL per gram. Again, the same factors weighed on economy. Thus, this kept the price of gold elevated. Also, the Coronavirus effects started to hurt Turkey’s hard currency economy, tourism. Again, rates were lowered and many local investors were investing in gold and dollars. What is more, the Turkish lira was under selling pressure. Even the State banks couldn’t could stop the slide by selling borrowed dollars. As the economy slows, this will put more pressures on the TRY. Thus, gold prices should remain elevated.
April,