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Over the last few years or so, Turkey has slowing been drifting away from the old norms in pursuit of its own policies and interests. However, many of these interests have now hit a boiling point with many states, investors, and organizations around the world.
So, why does Turkey have so many conflicts with its fellow partners and investors? Lets breakdown what has occurred in the last few years or is pending now:
- United States–sanctions were applied on Turkey for a US pastor accused of terrorism charges and not released. Another kind of ongoing issue is the US’s support for the YPG, a Kurdish militia, that fought against ISIS, which many in the US claim Turkey was helping. Also, Turkey continues to threaten parts of Syria where the US are active. The S400 purchase from Russia, which directly violates Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) could be sanctioned anytime. Also, the Global Magnitsky Act could be used for gross human rights violations resulting in sanctions. An array of other smaller issues have caused friction like the gold trade with Iran (violating UN sanctions) with the help of Halkbank, Fetullah Gulen, other Syrian issues and so on.
- EU— sanctions were imposed on Turkey for drilling for oil and gas off Cyprus and some other agreements were cancelled. Also, the refugee crises, which Europeans felt they were blackmailed by Turkey have weighed heavily on relations. The EU’s constant condemnations of Turkey being anti-democratic and unjust, which has resulted in muted succession talks.
- Saudi Arabia–boycott of Turkish products, tourism, and real estate investment initiated by the Saudi government in connection with president Erdogan trying to leverage the Jamal Khashoggi incident, which occurred at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Another issue creating a rift is the Saudi government’s support of YPG. Also, Turkey’s support for Qatar, which is an enemy of Saudi Arabia and its allies. Saudi Arabia demanded Qatar close its Turkish military base on its territory. Another incident hurt relations was Turkey’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
- NATO–sanctioned by organization for S400 purchase and pending cancellation of the F35 jet program and parts suppliers in Turkey.
- Foreign investors: downgrades by leading rating agencies, lack of transparency, oversight, CB independency, democratic norms, foreign currency reserves, and NPLs, interest rates and inflation coupled with erratic economic polices and decisions panicked investors to flee and rethink investing in Turkey. Not to mention, unemployment, poor consumer spending, corruption, domestic dollarization, political friction, poor economic policies, and soft capital controls also resulted in an investment flight from Turkey. What is more, some investors were labeled by the president as terrorists. As a result, undue bias in investing in Turkey is the current.
Clearly, Turkey’s divergence of interests and policies have resulted in miscalculations and discord among a diverse group entities and states. Much of the turbulence and instability in Turkey is blamed on its one man rule and his subjective actions.
In order for Turkey to reverse many miscalculations, it will need more sound objective policies and some luck.
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