Turkey recently invaded Northern Syria after the US withdrew its troop deployment of around 1000 soldiers. Turkey has been contemplating this move for some time, but with the US there it couldn’t go in.
Brief History
Turkey and many Kurdish militant groups have been fighting for decades. Much of the conflict was related to the Kurds desire for autonomy and land whereas for Turkey it has been not wanting to forfeit land and power. Thus, thousands of people have died on both sides.
Over the last five years or so, the Turkish state has for the most part neutralized the Kurdish militant group PKK, which operates mainly in Turkey. In addition, many Kurdish politicians have been jailed or demised from their jobs for even mentioning autonomy.
Syrian Kurds (PYD & YPG)
During the Syrian civil war, the PYD, political arm of Syrian Kurds along with the YPG, defense force aligned with the US to purge the Islamic State (ISIS) from mainly Northern Syria. With the US presence in Northern Syria, Syrian Kurds got stronger and this alarmed Turkey since they equate PYD/YPG/SDF and PKK as having the same agenda.
Threat or scapegoat?
During the fight with the Islamic State, the US never supplied the Syrian Kurds with any heavy weapons, so many of weapons they have are small weapons, mortars, and maybe some black market anti-tank missiles. This hardly constitutes a real threat for Turkey, which has a huge army with advanced weapons and F16s.
Idlib is the last rebel or Jihadist groups’ stronghold in Syria. Turkey has been trying to prevent a full on assault by Russia and the Syrian army to eliminate the Jihadist groups there. If a full assault does take place, then many of those people would end up in Turkey. Thus, it would cause enormous problems for Turkey in terms of refugees and an influx of jihadists.
In the domestic sphere in Turkey, many Turks don’t like the Syrians, so another influx of Syrians won’t bode well for Erdogan’s party. Also, with Nationalist hatred towards Kurds and Syrians, Erdogan needs to keep them content. Furthermore, since the economy is sluggish nowadays, many are questioning Erdogan’s presidential legitimacy.
Potential benefits for Turkey
- Relocate Syrians in Turkey to Northern Syria
- Prevent an influx of refugees from Idlib
- Appease the nationalists
- Relocate many jihadists from Idlib to Northern Syria
- Use the Jihadists to fight YPG and the Syrian Army
- Distraction from the sluggish economy to “defending Turkey from terrorists.”
- Expand it borders
- Have the Jihadist and other Syrians declare self determination
Potential costs
- Prolonged civil war
- Conflict with the Syrian Arm, Russia, and Iran
- Economic recession or depression
- Domestic terrorism
- Loss of life
- Jihadists may turn on Turkey
- Delayed FDI
- Polarized society
- International condemnation
In conclusion, Turkey’s invasion is a multifaceted approach to deal with many pending issues. Regardless of the implications at home and abroad, Erdogan will continues this offensive until as long as he can. “Killing two birds with one stone” is definitely what Turkey is trying to achieve.
