On the surface, Turkish-US relations seem to be severely strained. However, digging deeper, we can see something quite different. A new norm has evolved since the collapse of close strategic partnerships due to foreign policy deviations. Nowadays, Turkish-US relations are based upon short term case by case issues. Also, since Erdogan views layers of diplomacy as ineffective, he prefers to deal directly with Trump. Thus, Trump and Erdogan’s backroom deals are the new norm.
Clearly, this concurrent Turkish invasion and US withdrawal has all the signs of a backroom deal. In fact, the way it was structured and executed with very few people knowing about it in advance, solidifies this new norm. Furthermore, since Turkey was temporarily sanctioned by Trump and a ceasefire orchestrated a few days after the invasion, this could have only happened in a backroom deal.
Moreover, other issues like the S400 missile system, Valenzuela, and the Pastor Brunson matter were handled the same way. These deals are based on a give and take relationship.
Trump and Erdogan’s recent backroom deal is a win-win for both leaders especially in the short term. Let’s look at the benefits for both leaders.
Benefits for Trump
- Credit for Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s termination.
- Withdrawal of US troops from a zero sum game area of Syria.
- Campaign pledge promise fulfilled.
- Pulling Russia into a bigger Syrian mess, thus weakening it.
- Weakening Turkey by allowing it to invade Syria.
Benefits for Erdogan
- Showing his supporters he is strong against a superpower.
- A buffer zone to relocate Syrians from Idlib and Turkey.
- Symbolic win against a traditional foe, YPG-SDF-PKK.
- Domestic distraction from the slow economy.
- More land gives it leverage with Russia and Syria.
In conclusion, backroom deals are the new norm for Turkey-US relations. Since Erdogan has lost most of his friends in the US, Trump is the only person he deals with. For Trump, dealing with Erdogan like this, minimizes risks for him at home and abroad. The next backroom deal will be minimizing all the potential pending sanctions.
